There’s more detail on that CNN/Des Moines Register poll relating to the 2020 Iowa caucus we covered here.
While Sen. Kamala Harris, California’s leading contender for the Democratic nomination in 2020, isn’t faring that well in Iowa, she does have an arguable numbers advantage over Sen. Bernie Sanders– one of the big dogs in the 2020 nomination fight.
Check out these numbers, cited by data whiz Josh Jordan:
Notice how Harris’ unfavorable number is less than half that of Sanders, while her favorable number is more than half what Bernie’s is? That suggests that while Iowa Democrats don’t know a ton about her, as it stands, based on what they know, she’s faring pretty well compared to an extremely well-known quantity.
How will these numbers change as Harris’ profile rises– assuming she does run for President? It’s hard to say, but the probability is that as a second-time candidate, Sanders will be pressed harder on policy than the newbies. So far, he doesn’t seem to have especially fleshed-out policy answers. Harris, by contrast, lacks good soundbites but is regarded in the Senate as more detail-oriented.
Of course, Hillary Clinton was, too. Yes, she ultimately won the Democratic nomination in 2016, but then lost to Trump. And look at her numbers, as broken down by Josh. Maybe Democrats in 2020 won’t be shopping for details and substance so much as they will vitriol and slogans. If that’s the case, Sanders could continue to perform quite well, despite the presence of other candidates who should, by rights, be better-performing in the field– though it looks like Biden will remain a challenge for him, both because he’s known and because CNN’s numbers show him to be very, very well-liked.